November 2012
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2012 Report U.S. Indoor Air Quality Market by BCC... →
IAQ market valued at $7bn in 2011, expected to grow to $9.2bn by 2017. Less growth realized from earlier study - quoted reason is the economic downturn from 2008.
July 2012
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How vital is #Syria's Tartus port to #Russia? (BBC... →
Photos from the port show old Russian trucks, only three docks, not a lot going on. Not a huge base… more nostalgia for former soviet times.
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Why #Russia sells #Syria arms (BBC News) - and why... →
Russia will maintain a significant role in the Syria even after the inevitable ending of the revolution (Assad gone, new formative structures created). The Syrian military is almost exclusively Russian supplied. The military will need to be maintained, even with a new revolutionary command in place. The equipment needs to be serviced, parts procured, etc. The military cannot change overnight - and...
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Something weird in #NorthKorea / changes... →
North Korea is going through some weird changes, kicked off with the death of the god king, followed up by the changes adopted by the new young leader.
The direction feels more Myanmar-like than ever before. Probably for similar reasons. There China was starting to have too much influence, plus the leaders realized they could be more successful (financially, other power) by opening up and...
May 2012
1 post
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Humanity Makes the Leap from Monkey Brains – It’s...
Humans are pretty dumb as a species today (and were a lot dumber just a few years ago). As a dumb species we do a lot of dumb things, things that could be done a lot smarter.
We do not bother to look up factual information on the Internet, and prefer to celebrate people who appear to have good memories
We do not record meaningful conversations (nor share them outside of ear shot, nor translate...
March 2012
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Wade #Senegal president & ex-protege face off in... →
Abdoulaye Wade subverted the democratic process by tweaking the rules on being allowed to run a third time, and then badly mistimed his attempt to change the rules to give him a chance of winning the election. He attempted to get the threshold for ‘winning’ in the first round to be just 25% to become president. His timing for the constitutional change was not ideal - just when the Arab...
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Fear of Revolution Drives Omar al-Bashir of Sudan... →
I’m taking an active look at Sudan… research stage for now
February 2012
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#Putin United Russia Protests & Fakery (New... →
The bad guys read the same playbooks as the good guys - and usually have a lot more resources. The Putin youth movement was a response to the revolutionary movements in Ukraine, Georgia - and inspired by the Serbian Otpr movement in 1999/2000.
In the past they would get away with it, because there was no way of broadcasting the truth in such a way as for others to see it and share it. Now,...
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100K+ rally against Putin (AP) - only 15K for... →
Even if the election is not too far away, the situation is extremely unstable for Putin’s United Russia, the party of blatant election fraud.
How this plays out… don’t know. The problem is not Putin per se, but the entire system. The opposition is Kremlin appointed - so there is no real opposition. The system at the top has become rotten.
How to change? Double elections in...
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Russia warns of 'scandal' in UN Syria vo... JPost... →
Eventually Russian voters are going to think: hey, we support stability, but we also see the news, watch hundreds get killed, read about how we Russians are selling the weapons to kill civilians (and we are civilians too). How many more years of Putin-style leadership should we put up with?
This may flip internally and develop a Russian internal context. So not a bad thing - in the short term...
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Orascom Telecom Media Shares Jump After... →
I am fine that no one believes me… or believed me…
Just you wait. NK will dramatically surprise this year, maybe even more than Burma. 6% penetration rate for advanced 3G mobile phones in NK. Text messaging, MMS. No internet. No international numbers. But information gets in, gets out, and spreads.
Surprises are in store - according to contagion wisdom :)
January 2012
7 posts
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Billionaires Join US in making #Putin mad in... →
The more Putin is forced to speak in public, the more likely he is to make unforced errors. He is very used to mouthing off without being questioned. The United Russia fraudulent election was a screw up. He is now significantly weakened - he was their Prime Minister, after all.
As he ramps up public attention, it creates a space for an ‘anyone but Putin’ approach in the first round of...
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#Syria #Assad has only 'few weeks' left in... →
I lost my 40% guess at the regime being gone before the end of the year (was made in Aug - 50% for end of March, and remaining 10% before Sept 2012). My missing assumption was the time it took to kick off the oil sanctions, which were delayed until mid Nov (instead of the start of Oct).
Assad is in a no-win situation (for himself) that is inevitable:
- the economy has collapsed internally...
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#Russia & #Putin struggle to handle protestors +... →
It is nice the way the assumptions about how Russians would behave regarding Putin are being proved wrong. Reminds me of a year ago, when experts were pontificating about Mubarak and Gaddafi. They f*ed up then, and so what are the odds that they have miraculously become right now. I am not talking about the individual experts by name. I am talking about the Expert Class, people who are trained,...
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#Algeria's moderate Islamist party exits... →
It will be interesting to see how things develop… if anything develops at all. Nothing really sparked in Algeria, even though it shares similar enabling conditions to the rest of the region. Let’s see if anything happens (at all)
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CH top court rejects visa bid by Makhlouf cousin... →
The argument that he needs to see a lawyer in person is ridiculous. There are secure phone lines… and after all, he is in charge of part of the military himself.
He went through the effort to go through the court process. The court documents may even by public and publishable. He knew there was a very good chance they would be rejected. And fundamentally, there was no need for him to travel...
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#Libya militia holds Gaddafi supporters over... →
It is a tense situation - there is enough money about for pro-Gaddafi activities, and a ton of people who lived well from the previous regime who are still active in society.
We may be worried about the amount of arms in the country, and the existence of militias. However without their help, Libya would never have become free. And now, without their help in this interim period, the forces that...
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History of the emergence & spread of colored... →
** Google Translate from Russian The history of the emergence and spread of colored revolutions in the world Printable version Code to Blog The main theme of recent weeks - the protest displeased with the results of the elections. People who genuinely do not accept everything that darkens the thrill of life in today’s Russia - the extent of corruption, clumsy actions of officials,...
December 2011
65 posts
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Q. Should #Syria brace for a Financial Collapse?... →
Financial collapse is inevitable - and was the effectively the desired result of the economic sanctions. The government tax receipts are down over 50% (no oil exports, no tourism, no construction, 30%+ unemployment - official figures!). The govt is likely to ask companies and its supporters to lend it money internally - as they have no access to international funds (maybe Iran, Russia always...
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Towards the #Syria End Game - SNC & NCB opp... →
This ends with a united opposition. Yes, it has taken a good while to get there, but that reflects the huge variety of opinions in the country, and the divisive tactics used by the regime to maintain its control of the 23+M population.
New national flag. Free Syrian Army. United opposition. Arab League observer mission reporting end Jan / start Feb. Collapse in government tax revenues and huge...
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Reflections on "The Party as the Kingmaker"(38... →
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Denomination is expected in #Belarus - Charter'97... →
Tick, tick, tick
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Worth reading in depth - does @NorthKorea really... →
Interesting stuff - worth going through in full to see what the North Koreans really have and are likely to introduce in the coming months and years.
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#Hungary -> sleep walking into elected... →
Even Hitler was elected…
Let us see if the European structures are strong enough to stop one of their own countries becoming a dictatorship in slow motion. Hmmmm, what are the chances…. slightly higher than zero…
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KoryoLink mobiles in #NorthKorea (NK News) - text... →
An assessment of the technology, the spread, and the potential for use in any form of mass movement. People are remarkably creative - particularly the youth of any population.
Orascom Telecom is on its path to running a normal telco - albeit it in a restrictive regime (they have experience from Mubarak’s Egypt). They have 24 stores, sponsor sporting events, etc. They even offer discounts...
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#NorthKorea power-behind-throne emerges (Reuters)... →
So many changes in a short period of time. Other top leaders at 80 years old. A country that has collapsed. Tourism declined by 70% - even from a tiny base. All positions at the top changing… while the god-king passage gets messed up as too little time for propaganda…
This is going to get very messy indeed. Watch for the tun up to April 2012 100th anniversary of dead granddad...
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Researching South Korean politics for 2012 -> key... →
Background reading
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Veteran Sudan officer tasked with seeing end to... →
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Vladimir Putin's wealth $179,612 by Russian... →
He must be the poorest Russian in Moscow then, certainly amongst his crowd. Of has the best accountants, tax lawyers, shell companies, bribes, etc. Hmmm… which one to choose…
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000s on Moscow streets, calling for fair elections... →
The protest movement hit its target - despite the cold weather. And this is despite Medvedev’s calming statement earlier in the week. A decent portion of the population isn’t buying the thin story from Putin-Medvedev. As to whether the people can do anything about it, that is another story. We will see how things progress into 2012.
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#Assad in #Syria - bomb blasts from Al-Q? Top... →
Yup, Assad’s regime really would do this. He has been doing it all along. I saw similar nuttiness (plus death) in Libya from Col Gaddafi. Dictators do not think like normal people, and nor do their henchmen. And they think they can get away with fooling the international community.
Of course, the head of the Arab League force, a general from Sudan (WTF?!?!?!), will probably agree that Al-Q...
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More insight on Kim Jong Un than in most news... →
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North Korea Leadership Watch | Research and... →
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Current cost of living in #NorthKorea (NK Econ... →
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#northkorea technology - iPads, e-mail, orascom... →
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PhotoBlog - Photographer visits #NorthKorea with... →
Boy, just think what will happen when they see iPhones and Facebook! Wikipedia?? Some of them may actually explode!
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North Korea Today - Good Friends - more insider... →
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#northkorea Spy agency review - who is who?... →
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‘Investing in the Fatherland’: Corruption in... →
Follow the money
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Daily Mail - #NorthKorea political prisoner camps... →
If these camps grew during the early stage of transition, the next stage this year could expect an increase of 30-50% in incarcerations. People will speak out that the Dear Leader is now gone, and without the God-King, who is this gimp of a kid who is supposed to now rule them?!?
Easy one-way ticket to jail…
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Free the NK Gulag - web site on #northkorea prison... →
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North Korea Special Weapons - from FAS #northkorea... →
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Cuban Parliament meets behind closed doors -... →
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