Researching Regime Change

Photos from the port show old Russian trucks, only three docks, not a lot going on. Not a huge base… more nostalgia for former soviet times.

Russia will maintain a significant role in the Syria even after the inevitable ending of the revolution (Assad gone, new formative structures created). The Syrian military is almost exclusively Russian supplied. The military will need to be maintained, even with a new revolutionary command in place. The equipment needs to be serviced, parts procured, etc. The military cannot change overnight - and even if there was a desire to replace Russian arms with another provider, this would be extremely expensive and very time consuming. It is much more likely that a post-revolution government will prioritize healthcare, jobs, and the economy - rather than the military.

Russia will lose out on a lot of things … but they will continue to be an arms supplier to Syria for many years to come.

The bad guys read the same playbooks as the good guys - and usually have a lot more resources. The Putin youth movement was a response to the revolutionary movements in Ukraine, Georgia - and inspired by the Serbian Otpr movement in 1999/2000.

In the past they would get away with it, because there was no way of broadcasting the truth in such a way as for others to see it and share it. Now, however, it is game over for this kind of hiding.

Even if the election is not too far away, the situation is extremely unstable for Putin’s United Russia, the party of blatant election fraud.

How this plays out… don’t know. The problem is not Putin per se, but the entire system. The opposition is Kremlin appointed - so there is no real opposition. The system at the top has become rotten.

How to change? Double elections in 2012? One run now, and then run a new parliamentary election, forced on the new president in some way? Knock out blow to Putin in the elections in March? Tricky? Strategy will be needed… where is a good-guy Rasputin when you need him… ;)

Eventually Russian voters are going to think: hey, we support stability, but we also see the news, watch hundreds get killed, read about how we Russians are selling the weapons to kill civilians (and we are civilians too). How many more years of Putin-style leadership should we put up with?

This may flip internally and develop a Russian internal context. So not a bad thing - in the short term (again) - if they reject the resolution. The impact may be more beneficial in the medium term (still, it is terrible to watch the civilian bloodshed in Syria :(

The more Putin is forced to speak in public, the more likely he is to make unforced errors. He is very used to mouthing off without being questioned. The United Russia fraudulent election was a screw up. He is now significantly weakened - he was their Prime Minister, after all.

As he ramps up public attention, it creates a space for an ‘anyone but Putin’ approach in the first round of the elections. Then comes the 21 day countdown to the next vote. This will be interesting!

It is nice the way the assumptions about how Russians would behave regarding Putin are being proved wrong. Reminds me of a year ago, when experts were pontificating about Mubarak and Gaddafi. They f*ed up then, and so what are the odds that they have miraculously become right now. I am not talking about the individual experts by name. I am talking about the Expert Class, people who are trained, self-styled specialists.

** Google Translate from Russian The history of the emergence and spread of colored revolutions in the world Printable version Code to Blog The main theme of recent weeks - the protest displeased with the results of the elections. People who genuinely do not accept everything that darkens the thrill of life in today’s Russia - the extent of corruption, clumsy actions of officials, violations of the law at the ballot box, so here’s all the citizens who come to protest on the streets within the law, they want to be heard by the authorities. And it’s very sensitive about all this talk about the fact that it can be fraught not only and not for power but for the whole country. All dissenters, going to meetings, should at least know that their voices can also be used brazen manner and not in their best interests. This has already happened in several of our neighboring countries, so it was in North Africa, and nothing prevents the use of the accumulated techniques against our country, in order to exclude it as a competitor in the global world. Belgrade, October 2000. Compressed white fist in a circle on a black background does his first crushing blow to the regime. As a result of massive and surprisingly well-organized popular uprising Yugoslav leader Slobodan Milosevic was forced to relinquish power. It will be years before the emblem of Serbian student organization “Otpor”, which led the opposition to Yugoslav fragmented victory will be a trademark. Branimir Nikolic - activist movement “Otpor” in Serbia’s Vojvodina fought to the end. It has been 10 years since the victory of the Serbian revolution, when the forces have left him. Last spring, he hanged himself, leaving his friend and lawyer’s farewell letter to his political testament. “Branimir was a romantic revolution. I think that ultimately what he did was the last, has not tasted them a way to draw people’s attention to how they benefited from the victory,” - said the lawyer, Olga Radichevich. Washington, December 2011. We are witnessing a phenomenon that is now spreading around the world. I appreciate the honor that is given to me, and I think that in this way you have demonstrated their agreement with what is likely to become world, to how it should function. Srdzha Popovic - back in 1998, Belgrade University student, was one of the founders of the Serbian movement “Otpor”. In early December of this year, the influential American magazine “Foreyn Policy” in Washington, Mr. Popovich turned to his list of 100 most important thinkers of the world. Occasion - the success of the so-called “Arab spring”. “Nonviolent Revolution covers the huge masses of people and is a consequence of domestic policy. If indeed it began to be quite so little - a lot of money and a few consultants from abroad, the world would become freer right now. Unfortunately, there more difficult, “- says co-founder of the Center for Applied Nonviolent actions and strategies” Srdzha Popovich. Authoritative American magazine is a publication of the Council on Foreign Relations. “Foreyn Policy” was established in 1970, the future director of the Council of Samuel Huntington, who eventually became head of planning in the Security Council the U.S., will be vice-president of America. Associate of Brzezinski, author of “The Clash of Civilizations”, which has had an enormous influence on U.S. foreign policy the last 20 years. The young Serbian philosopher Srdzha Popovich was here in the “Foreyn Policy” in good company. In addition to it - among the 100 outstanding minds of humanity according to the magazine: couple the Clintons, Obama, Sarkozy, Condoleezza Rice. But we are interested in the names of three - myself Popovich, Gene Sharp and Alex Bulk. Gene Sharp - 83-year-old man, author of “From Dictatorship to Democracy,” which was published in the U.S. back in 1993. Later, his work will be translated into dozens of languages ​​and will be a practical guide, which contains 180 methods of the so-called non-violent overthrow of the government. “It’s all based on basic human qualities and characteristics, to the courage and fortitude. That is, people stand for something, insist on their own. And they do it in the political field, that’s the point. But the details, of course, more complicated,” - says Gene Sharp. Details, of course, more complicated. Shortly before the Revolution in 2000, the Yugoslav authorities accused the student opposition movement “Otpor” in that the activities of organizations financed from the United States and directed by American instructors. Then the statement was seen as propaganda and an attempt to undermine the movement of young revolutionaries. “At first it was a bust, even for us - support for these young people, but to honor those who made the decisions, I must say that this was a good idea” - the director of “The Balkan Initiative” U.S. Institute of Peace Daniel Server. To teach the Serbs a good ideas just after the NATO bombing of Yugoslavia in neighboring Hungary flew a retired colonel in the U.S. Army counterintelligence officer Robert Helvi. Interview with Robert Helvi - part of a presentation movie “The overthrow of the dictator”, shot by the Americans on the activities of the movement “Otpor”. The film is translated into many languages, including Russian, and is positioned as a tutorial for beginners rebels. By 2003, when there was no more reason to hide who actually was behind a group of young Serb enthusiasts, the majority of supporters turned against the organization, a humble child of an old man from Boston, Gene Sharp. “Non-violence as a weapon - a concept developed and promoted members of the Albert Einstein Institute, created by Sharp. It is clear why all these” peaceful revolutions “in Serbia, Georgia, etc. reigns is not such a peaceful atmosphere gandievskaya how they want to present , “- says a political analyst in Frankfurt William Engdahl. William Engdahl - a famous American writer and political analyst living in Germany, an expert on non-governmental organizations. “One of the functionaries of the Institute of Einstein, employees Sharpe, was the organizer of the coup in Burma, Myanmar, Colonel Robert Helvi, who still practiced in Beijing, Tiananmen Square. And here is amazing: virtually all the countries in which the observed activity of the Sharpe ratio, and Helvi generally their institution - those countries, a regime change in interest to the U.S. “- says William Engdahl. “Canvas” - Centre for Applied Nonviolent actions and strategies, so now is what is left of the Serbian “Otpor”. Their headquarters is located in a house down the street 76A Gandhi in Belgrade. By his own admission the head of “Canvas” Srdzhi Popovich, center coached future revolutionaries of the 37 countries, its experts have worked in the Maldives and Lebanon, Tunisia and Egypt. Clenched fist, inherited “Canvas” by inheritance, was seen in Venezuela and Kyrgyzstan. In addition to success in Egypt, which recently celebrated Popovich in Washington, the most successful Canvas believes its activities in Tbilisi and Kiev. “There were many examples of how to dramatize the events, and just the fact that people having fun on the streets. The Revolution - a holiday. It - the spirit of Gene Sharp. Every action must be branded and have their own symbol: orange orange movement in Ukraine, Rose - in Georgia, Tulip Revolution in Kyrgyzstan, royal blue - in Belarus, many different characters and concepts, but the bottom line - one as a sponsor, the U.S., “- says the expert of the foreign policy of peace and conversion Dmytro Potekhin (Kiev). Our British colleagues, who were shooting instructor in nonviolent resistance in Kyiv, Dmytro said that already in 2004, during the events on the Maidan, the budget was available to him a million dollars. In the past he has made a serious career - from the Ukrainian activist became an instructor in charge of the eastern direction, Belarus, for example. “It is likely that there will be, as in Egypt. First, small countries like Egypt, Belarus, Ukraine, and then we can talk about Russia,” - says Dmytro Potekhin. Showing its effectiveness, the technology is widely nonviolent revolution is sweeping the world. That friend on cam movements tents “April 6” on Tahrir Square in Cairo. Remember the famous riders on camels attacked a crowd of protesters in Cairo. Then it was served as the agony of the Mubarak regime, set on peaceful demonstrators in the wild Bedouins. In fact, this was a planned nonviolent action designed to demonstrate the chaos and led to the first clashes with the police. “Otpor” worked in the suburbs of Cairo, and this work was to learn the art of peaceful resistance. We learned not to consider the police as their enemies, and try to lure to their side. We were supposed to inspire people the idea of ​​nonviolent resistance, “- says Mohamed Adel, activist” April 6 “. Where there is power, there is always dissatisfaction with her. There are one or the other share of popular indignation. This dissatisfaction, which can be skillfully managed, insists David Icke, a British political scientist, set a goal to try to warn coming to the area from excessive naivete. Ike had just returned from the USA, where he spoke to the people occupying the Wall Street. “The classic illustration - Georgia. There was George Soros, is associated with the house of Rothschild, the billionaire founder of several funds - the” Open Society “,” International Crisis Group “- they specialize in just such” popular “revolutions. It came to power, Saakashvili, a education in the U.S. “- explains the analyst. He cites the example of Egypt: in a time when the demonstration starts in Cairo and El-Baradei, head of the IAEA once, suddenly embraces the revolutionary fever, he arrives from Europe, he was on television, he was a revolutionary leader! “But ElBaradei, until recently, was part of the very” crisis group “, which also includes Soros, Zbigniew Brzezinski and others that specialize in manipulating” people’s “revolution” - says David Icke. Over the years, non-violent resistance technology perfected to the smallest detail - methods of crowd control and involvement of local activists, cliche slogans and jokes, work with social networks on the Internet, the tactics of relations with the police and the media, the mobilization scheme. Created, even special educational computer game, where the government plays a computer, and the player is required while operating a rich set of options that make nonviolent revolution. Today cam “Canvas”, once a symbol of the young romantics of the Yugoslav revolution, compresses the thread links to professional revolutionaries around the world. “It’s not the revolution itself, and to mobilize people, needless to say that this is paramount factors such as injustice or corruption, but the basics remain constant all the time: you have to have a vision of tomorrow, unity, and be able to plan and maintain nonviolent discipline “- said co-founder of the Center for Applied Nonviolent actions and strategies” Srdzha Popovich. From the moment the revolution became a profession, and the revolutionaries were united in network corporations, people walking on the area of ​​Maidan Tahrir up to defend their rights, are obliged to think about how, perhaps they will look at the computer monitor next crisis manager making at this point his career. In a small, preparing for Christmas Serbian town of Subotica, on the table in front of a lawyer Olga Radichevich last letter to her friend hanged. Remaining faithful to the ideas of the revolution, a former activist of the movement “Otpor” writes that the requests do not consider it a testament to his act of insanity. All 10 years after the overthrow of Milosevic, he struggled with corruption and the new democratic authorities came to the conclusion that to cope with them can only be a new revolution. But revolutions are not made in isolation. He is going to be the only victim of its own non-violent resistance.

He must be the poorest Russian in Moscow then, certainly amongst his crowd. Of has the best accountants, tax lawyers, shell companies, bribes, etc. Hmmm… which one to choose…

The protest movement hit its target - despite the cold weather. And this is despite Medvedev’s calming statement earlier in the week. A decent portion of the population isn’t buying the thin story from Putin-Medvedev. As to whether the people can do anything about it, that is another story. We will see how things progress into 2012.